Last season, eight teams went 8-8, seven of which missed the playoffs (Denver won a three-way tie in its division). These teams find themselves on the cusp of playoff berths, but also on the precipice of regress. Which of these teams will improve and/or reach the playoffs this season? I don't know. But I can guess.
AFC East - New York Jets
The Jets have been talking big ever since Rex Ryan became coach, and they came very close to the Super Bowl dream, reaching the AFC Championship game twice in a row before falling out of playoff contention last year. With the addition of red-zone monstrosity Plaxico Burress, the Jets looked poised to finally push over the top, but it all fell apart. The offense stalled often, and the staunch defense fell apart. The latter part should be fine, as the core of what made them so fearsome over the last few years is still there, and Kyle Wilson should mature as a corner alongside Darrelle Revis. If both Wilson and Cromartie can keep the fouls and mistakes down, opposing offense will have a devil of a time trying to pass against them. It's the offense that has to improve. Burress is gone, leaving Santonio Holmes, who according to some of his teammates, gave up last year, as the big receiving threat. Chaz Schilens, the forever-potential breakout receiver, tops the depth chart on the other side, and rookie Stephen Hill looks like the #3. Mark Sanchez must do better. The receivers aren't the best, but they're not bad either. Tebow looming behind him doesn't help, so Sanchez needs to be locked in from the start and reduce turnovers. Shonn Greene looks like he's being given one last chance to be more than a mediocre back. If he and the rest of the offense improve, the Jets could easily grab a wildcard berth (I don't see them supplanting New England for the division championship anytime soon).
AFC West - Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders
The Broncos won the division last year because of/despite of the Tebow show. Now, that circus has left town, and Peyton Manning mans the controls. That right there looks like enough to crown them best in the West, but it might not be that simple. Manning's still recovering from neck surgery, and there's no guarantee he'll be the same player who made the Colts perennial contenders. Plus, there's those other teams to deal with. The Chargers were a huge disappointment last season, victims of myriad mental errors and unfortunate injuries more than lack of ability. Vincent Jackson is in Tampa Bay now, but Philip Rivers has shown himself capable of playing well with a lesser receiving corps. And Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem aren't bad. Ryan Mathews is looking for a breakout season as the primary rusher; Tolbert won't be taking those short yardage carries anymore, so it's all up to him. He ran well last season, so the Chargers could definitely be a potent offensive force. The Oakland Raiders are just looking for some consistency after a tumultuous season that saw the death of owner/dictator Al Davis. Carson Palmer came in and didn't do a terrible job, but he threw too many interceptions while adjusting to the new system and the layoff from his refusal to play for the Bengals. Darren McFadden looked like the best running back in the NFL until he got injured again, and their capable receivers also suffered from injuries. If people can stay healthy, the Raiders will be a team no one wants to play. So which of these teams will take the crown and make the playoffs? My head says Denver, my heart says San Diego, and my gut says Oakland. This division should be fun to watch.
NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles' "Dream Team" turned into a nightmare last season, losing their chance at grabbing the division and having to watch the rival Giants go on to win the Super Bowl. However, this could be their time. Michael Vick's a phenomenal talent at quarterback, and if DeSean Jackson keeps his head on straight, this offense will blow people away. The defense was a mess last season, but the presumption is that with a full offseason to learn the scheme, all the talent (Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Atogwe) in the secondary should gel and shut down opposing offenses. They'll need it against the Cowboys, who are coming at the league with breakout back DeMarco Murray, established veteran Miles Austin, and third-year receiver Dez Bryant. Throw in Jason Witten at tight end, and there's just too much going on for this offense to be stopped by anything but itself. Dallas addressed the defense in the draft, and looks to improve there as well. Both of these teams will be dangerous. The Giants still loom, however, and if they play consistently, should be the favorites to take the division. I give a slight edge to the Eagles to grab a wildcard, but it could go either way, and it's even possible that all three teams (Giants, Eagles, Cowboys) make the playoffs, like what happened in the AFC North last year.
NFC North - Chicago Bears
The big change is that Jay Cutler finally has capable receivers to throw to. They brought in talented headache Brandon Marshall, who succeeded with Cutler in the past, and drafted Alshon Jeffrey to improve their "meh" receiving corps. If the offensive line plays better, and Matt Forte doesn't let his contract issues detract from his stellar play, the Bears will have much more than their always-solid defense going for them. I think they'll grab a playoff spot for sure, and could even challenge Green Bay for the division title (though I think the Packers will ultimately come out on top).
NFC West - Arizona Cardinals
Kevin Kolb. Bottom line. He has to be what they paid for, or that's it. He's shown promise, but just hasn't delivered as a passer, and still has to compete with big-armed but sloppy thrower John Skelton. Rookie Michael Floyd will take some double-teams off of Larry Fitzgerald, who was still one of the most productive receivers in the league despite everything last year. Beanie Wells needs to build on his improved game he showed last year and avoid injury. Ryan Williams, who never got to play because of injury, could take over if Wells struggles. Their defense is pretty good, but was under far too much pressure last season because of offensive failures. Basically, all the pieces are there for the playoffs, but it all falls to Kolb. It doesn't help that there are 11 other teams in the NFC (Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Bears, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks) that could reasonably compete for those six playoff spots. Kolb has to make a huge leap for the Cards to beat out enough of those teams. Personally, I don't see it happening.
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