It's that time of year again: time to speculate about who the best and worst teams will be without waiting for training camps to finish, free agency to subside, or anyone to actually play football. But hey, that's part of the fun!
Here we go, worst-to-first:
32: Kansas City Chiefs
I just can't see this team getting anywhere. They've got talent: Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston catching passes, Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis in the backfield, Brandon Flowers, Stanford Routt, and Eric Berry patrolling the secondary, and rookie Dontari Poe anchoring the defensive front. But they have a huge problem at the head of their offense: Matt Cassel just isn't that good a quarterback. His regression sank them last year and basically got head coach Todd Haley fired. In April, Cassel had to answer questions about welcoming competition for his position. Behind him on the depth chart: Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi. Cassel's the presumptive starter, but when people are wondering about competition with Brady flippin' Quinn, that's not a good sign.
31: St. Louis Rams
They shored up their defense with rookie tackle Michael Brockers and corner Janoris Jenkins as well as free-agent acquisition Cortland Finnegan, but will their offense improve at all? Sam Bradford regressed in his play last year, but well... who can he really throw to? Rookie Brian Quick should help, but other than that, he's got a bunch of possession receivers. That means Stephen Jackson has to be amazing, again, and no one knows how much longer he can take the load. Rookie Isaiah Pead was brought in to share carries, but how much he'll improve the offense is yet to be seen. Somewhat like the Chiefs, I feel like they'll be a team that's somewhat difficult to score on, but easy to shut down offensively.
30: Jacksonville Jaguars
They took a punter in round 3 of the draft. That alone should tell you everything about this organization, but that's the lazy way out. Andre Branch will hopefully let their defensive line finally start pressuring opponents, and receiver Justin Blackmon should help right from the start. But QB Blaine Gabbert needs to improve quickly, or they're looking at more futility. Signing Laurent Robinson wasn't a bad move, but it smacked of desperation to fix the offense. Maurice-Jones-Drew is one of the best runners in the game, but he needs help. Aaron Ross should help their woeful secondary as well. Still, they look like locks for last in their division if Andrew Luck is all he's cracked up to be for the Colts.
29: Cleveland Browns
They did well to draft Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden; they needed upgrades at running back and quarterback. Richardson looks like a star and Weeden will compete with Colt McCoy right away. But they did nothing to help their receiving corps. Greg Little is expected to improve, but that's the lone bright spot. Cleveland's underrated defense should keep games closer than expected, but they just don't have the offensive firepower to beat good teams.
28: Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are putting everything in the hands of Christian Ponder, for better or worse. The quarterback, like fellow rookie Gabbert, struggled, albeit with a few bright moments last year. The receivers aren't bad, with Percy Harvin and (if he stays out of legal trouble) Jerome Simpson on the outside. And I don't need to write anything about Adrian Peterson. But Ponder has to improve. They helped give him some protection with rookie tackle Matt Kalil, but this is a make-or-break year for Ponder. Rookie strong safety Harrison Smith should play well, but, well, strong safeties aren't that important anymore.
27: Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill was an absolutely necessary pick: after whiffing on Peyton Manning AND Matt Flynn in free agency, they had to address the quarterback problem in the draft. Tannehill will compete with enigma Matt Moore, and probably will take the starting job at some point, if not right away. Other than that... doesn't look great for the Fins. While Brandon Marshall has tons of problems, he was their best receiver by miles, and he's gone. Davone Bess is a great slot/possession receiver, and Legedu Nanee has potential, but the cupboard's pretty much bare as far as receivers. If Reggie Bush continues his out-of-nowhere effectiveness and the underrated defense can keep playing well, that will help take pressure off of Tannehill/Moore.
26: Buffalo Bills
I basically expect stagnation. They signed Mario Williams, a definite difference-maker on defense. Other than that? More of the same. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the inconsistent quarterback. Stevie Johnson is the only consistent receiver. RB Fred Jackson has to do it all as best he can again and hope C.J. Spiller figures it out and helps him. Again, their defense should improve with rookie corner Stephon Gilmore, but this offense is not going to scare anyone; they were completely figured out during the latter half of last season.
25: Oakland Raiders
The Raiders had only six picks in the draft, and didn't start until the third round. Ouch. They also lost a great corner in Routt to free agency. Their defense remains decent and threatening with Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain always looking to tear someone's head off. If Carson Palmer can play better, which he should, and Darrius Heyward-Bey and Darren McFadden continue their sudden stardom, the Raiders could shock a few teams.
24: Tennessee Titans
Their offense improved and their defense regressed. Cortland Finnegan, while a bit of a penalty problem, was their most reliable corner. However, they drafted a great young receiver in Kendall Wright, which should help QB Matt Hasselbeck succeed in his place-holding role for expected overtaker Jake Locker. Chris Johnson disappeared for almost all of last season, but got it together for the last few games. Better receivers, star running back, another year for Locker to learn; the Titans are getting there.
23: Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin III. 'nuff said. Well, sort of. Taking QB Kirk Cousins two picks later was... odd, to say the least. They could've used help at receiver or to build defensive depth. It seems the 'Skins want to groom Cousins as future trade bait while Griffin brings them short-and-long-term success. We'll see. But Griffin looks like a star in the making, maybe sooner than later. Pierre Garcon has been inconsistent, but he is a skilled and needed receiver and a good free agent pickup to help Santana Moss. Head coach Mike Shanahan should make Roy Helu continue to be an effective runner, but the Curse of Shanahan (losing runner after runner to injury) looms...
22: Seattle Seahawks
The 'Hawks didn't really draft a difference-maker. But this isn't a bad team. Everything rides on free agent signee Matt Flynn to be an effective passer, but failing that, decent backup Tavaris Jackson and rookie Russell Wilson stand ready. Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, and Mike Williams make up a good receiving corps, and Marshawn Lynch was a touchdown machine last year. If their defense can hold things together, the Seahawks will improve.
21: Chicago Bears
Which Brandon Marshall will they get? The 100-catch wonder that succeeded with Jay Cutler in the past? Or the angry misfit punting footballs in practice? At least the Bears drafted receiver Alshon Jeffrey too, because this receiving group needs help. Matt Forte is a stud, but could still be unhappy about his contract fiasco. Beyond that, the defense has gotten older, slower, and less dependable. Hard to see improvement unless Marshall explodes in the good way.
20: Arizona Cardinals
They did exactly the right thing in drafting Michael Floyd to catch passes opposite star Larry Fitzgerald. If Kevin Kolb is going to succeed, he needs that help. Free agent acquisition Todd Heap, while an older player, finally gives them a legitimate receiving tight end, something everyone in the league needs in the pass-happy game we have today. If Beanie Wells still has it figured out and can avoid injury, this offense could scare people. It all depends on Kolb. Corner and special-teams sensation Patrick Peterson improved over his rookie season, and new rookie corner Jamell Fleming should help their pass defense as well. Now, if they could just get some pass rush...
19: New York Jets
Rookie Quinton Coples helps their D-line, and Stephen Hill helps their receivers. Any team with Darrelle Revis is going to be hard to pass against. But I just am not convinced that Mark Sanchez is a great quarterback. He's been inconsistent enough to make the fickle New York fans unhappy, and signing Tim Tebow behind him doesn't help matters. Santonio Holmes could blow up in the bad way at any moment, and Shonn Greene has yet to prove a worthy feature back. The Jets D can be a crushing unit again, but the offense could end up scaring no one but themselves.
18: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Getting Vincent Jackson and drafting Doug Martin to back up LeGarrette Blount were very sound moves that instantly ramp up their offense, which was pitiful at times last season. Josh Freeman has much more to work with now, and the Bucs hope they've given him an environment where he can improve into the star they think he'll be. Mark Barron should be a great strong safety, but as said before, strong safeties don't have as much of an impact as they used to. Free agent signing Eric Wright will help their pass coverage though.
17: Carolina Panthers
Luke Kuechly should start at middle linebacker right away and help their D as a whole. The Panthers need that in a big way, as they couldn't beat anyone despite Cam Newton's offensive fireworks. Steve Smith found the fountain of youth last year, and they still have excellent running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who should be relied on more so Newton doesn't have to risk injury by being the entire running game. With a bit more offensive balance and more consistent defensive play, the Panthers will be a tough out for all but the best teams.
16: Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck. Boom. Also, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, who played with Luck at Stanford, replace Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme as receiving tight ends to complement veteran receiver Reggie Wayne. This pass offense will rise again. The running game, however, maintains its Colts tradition of being awful. Donald Brown scares no one. Their bad, bad defense was not addressed in the draft. The Colts hope for the Manning effect from Luck: a passing offense so efficient, no one notices the major flaws.
15: San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are a team that has good players everywhere, but great players almost nowhere. Yet another middling season looks likely unless coach Norv Turner finally gets it all together and motivates his team. Phillip Rivers will do the best he can with ok receivers Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem. Ryan Mathews has to be a better running back. The defense has to play consistently. They drafted some decent players to that effect, but as ever, it all comes down to how hard and how smart their core plays. This is a team that looks like it can beat anyone, but might beat no one. Frustration is the norm.
14: Denver Broncos
They signed Peyton Manning. That has to help, right? Well, we'll see. But the pieces are there. Young receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker improved strongly last season, and Willis McGahee came out of nowhere to be an effective runner, though he needs Knowshon Moreno to be good enough to spell him. Their defense played better than they had any right to, led by stud rookie linebacker Von Miller. Head coach John Fox did a masterful job with Tim Tebow last year, and now he doesn't have to with Peyton Manning at the helm. That said, Peyton's health remains an X-factor. His neck is extremely fragile, and if (God-forbid) something happens to him, rookie Brock Osweiler loses that learning opportunity and could be pressed into service before he's ready.
13: Dallas Cowboys
They drafted a much-needed cornerback in Morris Claiborne, and all the offensive pieces are there. DeMarco Murray lit the league up before his injury, and Dez Bryant and Miles Austin make a fearsome duo. The defense, led by sack-maestro DeMarcus Ware, can put the hurt on opponents. But... it just seems like they'll make enough mistakes, especially committed by ever-embattled QB Tony Romo, to lose to teams they shouldn't. I could be totally wrong on this, and they could tear the league up. But I just can't believe in America's Team.
12: Philadelphia Eagles
From America's Team to the "Dream Team," I don't see much difference. Micheal Vick is obviously a whirlwind of offense, but he could go down from injury at any time if he keeps running so much. LeSean McCoy is one of the league's best and most dynamic running backs, and if DeSean Jackson stays motivated, he can break games open. If Philly plays their secondary, anchored by shutdown monstrosity Nnamdi Asomugha, to its potential instead of messing around like last year, they'll be tough to beat. But there are several ifs, the largest being Jackson.
11: Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton played very well last season, and now he has more to work with. A.J. Green will be an even better receiver this year, and Cincy snagged receiver Mohamed Sanu in the third round of this year's draft. Jermaine Gresham is a good receiving tight end, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis should be an upgrade while fulfilling a similar grinding role to Cedric Benson. The defense instantly gets better with rookie corner Dre Kirkpatrick, and has long been better than people think. Could this be a three AFC North playoff team year? I think it's certainly possible.
10: Atlanta Falcons
They drafted Peter Konz to play right guard, which helps QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner. Receiver Julio Jones played well last year, but the jury's still out on if he was worth all those draft picks the Falcons gave up for him in last year's draft. The onus is mostly on the defense to improve. If Asante Samuel's still got it, their pass defense is that much better. They need pass pressure, though. Ends John Abraham and Ray Edwards must deliver in that regard. On paper, they look slightly better than last year's team. But only slightly.
9: Detroit Lions
Rookie Riley Reiff improves their right tackle position, giving QB Matthew Stafford better protection, something he desperately needs. He threw for 5,000 freakin' yards last year. Imagine that, but with more time to do it. Not to mention they drafted yet another offensive toy in Ryan Broyles. This offense is scary as heck. The defense remains a question, however. They need to avoid careless penalties and suspensions (coughSuhcough), and the secondary has to play better. The Lions are well-equipped for shootouts, but the best teams can stall opposing offenses at some point.
8: New Orleans Saints
It hasn't been a good past few months for the Saints. Their offense will be fine; now-gone receiver Robert Meachem was just icing on the cake, and Drew Brees will make magic with Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham just fine. The defense, though... it was already inconsistent, and now suspensions and legal battles loom. It's possible that those suspended players, like Jonathan Vilma, will still play next season, but that doesn't change the fact that the Saints had a hard time stopping people last year and will probably have a harder time this year. It didn't help that they only had five draft picks, either.
7: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers (rightly) focused on their O-line in the draft, and it should pay big dividends. Right guard David DeCastro will start right away and left tackle Mike Adams will compete and add depth. This should also give Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman bigger holes to plow through, granting the Steelers much better red-zone efficiency. Ben Roethlisberger with time: a scary thought for opposing defenses. Their defense remains as scary as ever, as long as their players can avoid injury (Polamalu) and suspension (Harrison).
6: Baltimore Ravens
I give the Ravens the slight edge in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh rivalry based on recent results and Ray Rice being ridiculously good at everything. If rookie Bernard Pierce is good enough to help, look for that running game to pound opponents into submission. Courtney Upshaw gives them yet another great linebacker for Ray Lewis to command and further crush their enemies and hear the lamentations of their women. The passing game has to improve, though, and that's on Joe Flacco. The Ravens did not address their receiving corps, meaning Torrey Smith has to improve on a good rookie campaign, but they clearly expect Flacco to be the difference-maker they want him to be. They also have to hope Bryant McKinnie is an upgrade at left tackle, or Michael Oher could once again be guarding the blind side.
5: Houston Texans
Whitney Mercilus replaces Mario Williams as their scary sack artist, but it begs the question why they didn't just re-sign Williams and draft for other needs. Like, say, receiver. DeVier Posey basically replaces Jacoby Jones in the WR lineup, which may be an improvement, but not likely a huge one. With Matt Schaub handing off to Arian Foster and throwing to Andre Johnson, we know the offense will be good. But will it be good enough? They added some O-line depth in the draft, but no offensive explosiveness. Still, this looks like a very good team. It's just that it might not fare any better than last year.
4: San Francisco 49ers
It's almost unfair how much they improved their offense. They drafted a quite capable receiver in A.J. Jenkins, who will compete with hot-seat incumbent Michael Crabtree and newcomer and Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham for playing time. They also signed Randy Moss as a flyer, but not without the insurance of A.J. Jenkins. Brandon Jacobs comes in to take some of the pounding away from Frank Gore, helping their running game. LeMichael James will compete with Kendall Hunter for the speed-back position and is perhaps looking at a special-teams role, though that seems odd for a second-round running back choice. The core of their excellent defense is returning in full this season, which the rest of the league cannot be happy about. Alex Smith played shockingly well, and now has better receivers. Look out.
3: New York Giants
They drafted well to maintain their offensive capabilities. David Wilson will spell Ahmad Bradshaw and keep that running machine running, and Reuben Randle replaces departed hero Manningham. The Giants have proven shrewd scouts of receivers, so look for Randle to shine in the Z role behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They lost corner Aaron Ross in free agency, but it's not huge, especially with Prince Amukamara returning from injury to hopefully play a full season as a nickel corner or possibly even a starter by season's end. Eli Manning proved himself in a huge way with last year's Super Bowl victory, but it still feels like the Giants got hot at the right time and aren't really as good as the other top teams. They either overperformed when it counted or underperformed until crunch time. Neither is particularly desirable for long-term success.
2: Green Bay Packers
The Packers' biggest problem last year was defense, which is why they spent their first six out of eight draft picks on defensive players. They suffered from injuries and inefficiency, despite the excellence of Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. OLB Nick Perry will start right away and they picked up important depth in the D-line and secondary. If everyone stays healthy (something you can say for every team, but it holds true), this will be as scary a team as the one that won it all two years ago. Aaron Rodgers throwing to Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley is a proven recipe for offensive success, especially if RB James Starks can keep playing just well enough to keep opponents watching the run game.
1: New England Patriots
Bill Belichick and the Patriots strayed from their usual draft path, and for good reason. They lost the Super Bowl because their defense could not stop the Giants' offense, and the Giants defense could stop their offense. It's that simple. So, the Pats did the right thing: they drafted all-or-nothing defensive studs in the first round. Usually they stockpile middle-round picks through shrewd trades, hoping quantity will produce quality. It's worked pretty well, but now they need something more. To that end, they drafted DE Chandler Jones and ILB Dont'a Hightower (slated to play left linebacker), who both will start and make an impact right away. Tavon Wilson also provides safety depth, which their secondary needs. Offensively, the Pats lost reliable running cog Green-Ellis, but will easily replace him with a committee of Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and Shane Vereen. At receiver, Brandon Lloyd steps in to finally give Brady someone other than Wes Welker who can catch the ball consistently. That is, if Lloyd stays consistent after that breakout season two years ago. Still, the Patriots don't risk much, as they still have Deion Branch and signed Donte' Stallworth to back up Welker and Lloyd. Tom Brady was crushed after last year's Super Bowl loss. Now, the Patriots hope to crush everyone else, this time through defense as well as offense. It's all or nothing for New England. Super Bowl or bust.
