Stuck in the middle

Last season, eight teams went 8-8, seven of which missed the playoffs (Denver won a three-way tie in its division). These teams find themselves on the cusp of playoff berths, but also on the precipice of regress. Which of these teams will improve and/or reach the playoffs this season? I don't know. But I can guess.

AFC East - New York Jets

The Jets have been talking big ever since Rex Ryan became coach, and they came very close to the Super Bowl dream, reaching the AFC Championship game twice in a row before falling out of playoff contention last year. With the addition of red-zone monstrosity Plaxico Burress, the Jets looked poised to finally push over the top, but it all fell apart. The offense stalled often, and the staunch defense fell apart. The latter part should be fine, as the core of what made them so fearsome over the last few years is still there, and Kyle Wilson should mature as a corner alongside Darrelle Revis. If both Wilson and Cromartie can keep the fouls and mistakes down, opposing offense will have a devil of a time trying to pass against them. It's the offense that has to improve. Burress is gone, leaving Santonio Holmes, who according to some of his teammates, gave up last year, as the big receiving threat. Chaz Schilens, the forever-potential breakout receiver, tops the depth chart on the other side, and rookie Stephen Hill looks like the #3. Mark Sanchez must do better. The receivers aren't the best, but they're not bad either. Tebow looming behind him doesn't help, so Sanchez needs to be locked in from the start and reduce turnovers. Shonn Greene looks like he's being given one last chance to be more than a mediocre back. If he and the rest of the offense improve, the Jets could easily grab a wildcard berth (I don't see them supplanting New England for the division championship anytime soon).

AFC West - Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders

The Broncos won the division last year because of/despite of the Tebow show. Now, that circus has left town, and Peyton Manning mans the controls. That right there looks like enough to crown them best in the West, but it might not be that simple. Manning's still recovering from neck surgery, and there's no guarantee he'll be the same player who made the Colts perennial contenders. Plus, there's those other teams to deal with. The Chargers were a huge disappointment last season, victims of myriad mental errors and unfortunate injuries more than lack of ability. Vincent Jackson is in Tampa Bay now, but Philip Rivers has shown himself capable of playing well with a lesser receiving corps. And Malcolm Floyd and Robert Meachem aren't bad. Ryan Mathews is looking for a breakout season as the primary rusher; Tolbert won't be taking those short yardage carries anymore, so it's all up to him. He ran well last season, so the Chargers could definitely be a potent offensive force. The Oakland Raiders are just looking for some consistency after a tumultuous season that saw the death of owner/dictator Al Davis. Carson Palmer came in and didn't do a terrible job, but he threw too many interceptions while adjusting to the new system and the layoff from his refusal to play for the Bengals. Darren McFadden looked like the best running back in the NFL until he got injured again, and their capable receivers also suffered from injuries. If people can stay healthy, the Raiders will be a team no one wants to play. So which of these teams will take the crown and make the playoffs? My head says Denver, my heart says San Diego, and my gut says Oakland. This division should be fun to watch.

NFC East - Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys

The Eagles' "Dream Team" turned into a nightmare last season, losing their chance at grabbing the division and having to watch the rival Giants go on to win the Super Bowl. However, this could be their time. Michael Vick's a phenomenal talent at quarterback, and if DeSean Jackson keeps his head on straight, this offense will blow people away. The defense was a mess last season, but the presumption is that with a full offseason to learn the scheme, all the talent (Asomugha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Atogwe) in the secondary should gel and shut down opposing offenses. They'll need it against the Cowboys, who are coming at the league with breakout back DeMarco Murray, established veteran Miles Austin, and third-year receiver Dez Bryant. Throw in Jason Witten at tight end, and there's just too much going on for this offense to be stopped by anything but itself. Dallas addressed the defense in the draft, and looks to improve there as well. Both of these teams will be dangerous. The Giants still loom, however, and if they play consistently, should be the favorites to take the division. I give a slight edge to the Eagles to grab a wildcard, but it could go either way, and it's even possible that all three teams (Giants, Eagles, Cowboys) make the playoffs, like what happened in the AFC North last year.

NFC North - Chicago Bears

The big change is that Jay Cutler finally has capable receivers to throw to. They brought in talented headache Brandon Marshall, who succeeded with Cutler in the past, and drafted Alshon Jeffrey to improve their "meh" receiving corps. If the offensive line plays better, and Matt Forte doesn't let his contract issues detract from his stellar play, the Bears will have much more than their always-solid defense going for them. I think they'll grab a playoff spot for sure, and could even challenge Green Bay for the division title (though I think the Packers will ultimately come out on top).

NFC West - Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb. Bottom line. He has to be what they paid for, or that's it. He's shown promise, but just hasn't delivered as a passer, and still has to compete with big-armed but sloppy thrower John Skelton. Rookie Michael Floyd will take some double-teams off of Larry Fitzgerald, who was still one of the most productive receivers in the league despite everything last year. Beanie Wells needs to build on his improved game he showed last year and avoid injury. Ryan Williams, who never got to play because of injury, could take over if Wells struggles. Their defense is pretty good, but was under far too much pressure last season because of offensive failures. Basically, all the pieces are there for the playoffs, but it all falls to Kolb. It doesn't help that there are 11 other teams in the NFC (Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Lions, Bears, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks) that could reasonably compete for those six playoff spots. Kolb has to make a huge leap for the Cards to beat out enough of those teams. Personally, I don't see it happening.

Fantasy Football: Why on earth would you do such a thing?

Fantasy season is starting. Yahoo! just opened its game for registration, and I couldn't be more excited. I can't wait to agonize over draft decisions, foolishly predict game outcomes, groan about injuries, scour free agents for golden pickups, and wonder how it all went wrong when I look at my one (or more) last place team. Yeah, fantasy can be stressful. Why does it seem worth the consternation? And does it detract from enjoying watching and following the NFL, or does it enhance it?

I can't speak for anyone else, but I can tell my own story. When I started playing fantasy football, I knew very little about the game. I knew Peyton Manning was a good quarterback; that's about it. So what did I do? I studied. I perused the advice of Yahoo!'s fantasy experts about draft strategy, player rankings, and so on. But once the games started going, I had to learn things the hard way. One: don't drop your starting players that get injured, but still remain listed as "probable" for the next game. Two: don't panic when a player has an off day. Three: never be too confident. It was quite the ride: I only had two defeats and was ranked #1 going into the playoffs, but lost in the first round. Those star players I lucked into (it was an autopick draft, meaning players are picked from a ranking list to fill out your roster) didn't deliver when it most counted, and I had to settle for third. It was disappointing.

But I had a blast. There was something so cool about setting lineups, watching games unfold, reading the numbers, and doing it all over again the next week. It's a brilliant game: there are effective strategies and methods of setting yourself up for success, but in the end, it's luck. That #1 scoring running back going against the league's worst defense? He could get injured on the first play. That random wide receiver you picked up to replace an injury or a bye week? He could go off for 100+ yards and two touchdowns. You're never quite sure in this game, but that's what makes it so fun.

But what about enjoying the NFL itself? Does watching numbers take away from watching players? Does knowledge of the real game get pushed away by knowledge of the fake game? From what I can see, no. If anything, I became a fan of the NFL because of fantasy, not in spite of it. I had to learn who players were, what teams were succeeding and which were failing, how defenses work against different offenses and vice versa. I would never know as much as I do now without fantasy as the incentive; the more I know about Cleveland's pass defense, the more interested I become in Cincinatti's pass offense, and the trends of their receivers, and how other receivers have done against Cleveland, and so on. The search for advantageous information never ends, and it leads you to learn so much you didn't think you cared about.

So, if you don't understand why someone would want to play fantasy football instead of just watching the games, maybe my story offers some insight. Don't knock until you try it.

No Pressure: Rookie Quarterbacks

Seemingly more than ever, quarterbacks are being drafted as franchise saviors, expected to make their teams go from worst to first in a mere seasons, first-year learning curve be damned. It's hard to blame those teams, given the rookie success of quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Andy Dalton, and Cam Newton.


So this upcoming season, what teams are looking to lean on a rookie's arm, and which look like they'll keep their rookies in grooming for at least a year? Here are the teams and their rookie gunslingers, presented in draft order.

Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck (Stanford)
The Colts, after letting the injured Peyton Manning go in free agency, needed a new captain for their sinking ship. Two wins last season, the first pick of the draft, and they got their man. Now they just have to hope for the best; after all, first overall QB picks have failed colossally in the past (JaMarcus Russell, ugh). But no one really expects that from Luck. All reports say he has a fantastic work ethic and understanding of the game, along with all the physical tools he needs to succeed in the NFL. If Luck grows into his perceived potential, the Colts could return to being the cream of the league.

Washington Redskins - Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
In a blockbuster trade with the St. Louis Rams, the 'Skins made sure to get the next best QB in the draft: Robert Griffin III. There was talk before the draft that the Colts might actually consider taking RG3 ahead of Luck; there's a case to be made for each player. RG3 is more mobile and athletic than Luck, which is actually saying a lot, as Luck posted similar combine numbers to Carolina's sensational Cam Newton. Washington hopes they have the franchise player they've lacked for so long, and if all goes as expected, they might consider themselves even luckier than the Colts down the road.

Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)
The Dolphins took Tannehill higher than he was expected to go (8th overall), but they desperately needed him. Miami, like, Washington, has long been searching for its franchise quarterback. Chad Pennington wasn't him, Chad Henne wasn't, and Matt Moore isn't. Tannehill projects as a good player, but Miami doesn't have the greatest situation in place; Davone Bess is their best receiver, and he is in no way a legitimate #1 threat. Reggie Bush will probably be catching a ton of dumpoffs from whoever starts, be it the incumbent Moore or Tannehill, if the Dolphins decide to play him early.

Cleveland Browns - Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)
Weeden is an interesting prospect. He's certainly a good player, but he's also 28 years old; quite unusual for a rookie. Many wonder if this leaves him with inadequate time to develop into an above-average starter. Nevertheless, the Browns needed someone to compete with the inconsistent Colt McCoy, and Weeden's big arm seems to have enraptured Cleveland. Like Miami, though, the Browns don't boast much of a receiving corps. Fellow rookie running back Trent Richardson will boost their offense, but Weeden will need weapons if he ends up starting a meaningful number of games.

Denver Broncos - Brock Osweiler (Arizona State)
The first of the sure backup rookies, Osweiler has the opportunity (or perhaps burden) of sitting behind Peyton Manning. Learning behind a great has proven successful for a franchise QB in the past (Aaron Rodgers, anyone?), so it makes sense that the Broncos would want a project for the future while they hope for immediate success with Manning. He's tall for a quarterback--6'8"--which is cause for some concern about wind-up and mobility, things that will have to be overcome with experience. The big x-factor in his development is Manning's health; if Peyton's neck sidelines him, Osweiler might find himself pressed into action sooner than is optimal.

Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson (Wisconsin)
A bit of a strange pick, all in all. The Seahawks spent a bunch of money on free agent Matt Flynn, the second-most coveted free agent QB behind Manning. It looked like Flynn would be the starter, with incumbent Tavaris Jackson as the backup in a solidified hierarchy. Then they took Wilson in the third round, and now there's talk of competing for a starting role. Some have chalked this surprise up to coach Pete Carroll's fickle, fleeting love of quarterbacks, which could be a problem. Flynn and Jackson probably don't feel too good about Wilson's drafting. Wilson is a short QB (5'11"), but that hasn't stopped the 6'0" Drew Brees from dominating the league, as so many like to point out. A situation to watch, for sure.

Philadelphia Eagles - Nick Foles (Arizona)
Here's a very solid, traditional rookie situation. Michael Vick is the starter. Foles will learn behind him and compete with Mike Kafka (and to an extent, the forgotten Trent Edwards) for the backup spot. A true pick for the future, as it's apparent Philly doesn't need a savior and doesn't want to press him into action too quickly. There's nothing really special to say about this situation. Foles's success will be determined further down the road.

Washington Redskins - Kirk Cousins (Michigan State)
Wait, the Redskins? Didn't they already... yeah, right up there. Robert Griffin III. Strange. A theory that's cropped up to explain this move is that they want Kirk Cousins to develop and be trade bait; a sort of more deliberate Kevin Kolb situation. But it's still very strange to take another QB three rounds after your supposed franchise man, especially when there are other needs to be addressed. Like, say, receiver depth to help your prime passer revive your stagnant franchise. And who knows how Kirk Cousins feels? It must be hard for him to think he's being given a fair shot. But so it goes.

Arizona Cardinals - Ryan Lindley (San Diego State)
Arizona took Lindley in the 6th round, a clear indicator of his role: backup project. The Cards are overseeing a battle for starting position between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, and the loser will likely be the #2, leaving third string for Lindley. Maybe he'll see action, maybe he won't. Late round quarterbacks sometimes flourish out of nowhere (Tom Brady), so making a prediction is foolish with such prospects.

Green Bay Packers - B. J. Coleman (Chattanooga)
Aaron Rodgers obviously has an iron grip on the starting role, so Coleman is another project player. After letting Matt Flynn go, the Packers would like to be sure they have another capable backup. Perhaps Coleman will take that role.

Indianapolis Colts - Chandler Harnish (Northern Illinois)
Like the Redskins, the Colts drafted two quarterbacks, but they did it in a way that makes much more sense. Harnish, a round 7 choice, will compete for a backup role. It will interesting to see if he eventually overcomes Drew Stanton, who wasn't awful as a backup for Detroit in 2010.

Jumbo Power Rankings: I'm probably way off-base.

It's that time of year again: time to speculate about who the best and worst teams will be without waiting for training camps to finish, free agency to subside, or anyone to actually play football. But hey, that's part of the fun!

Here we go, worst-to-first:

32: Kansas City Chiefs

I just can't see this team getting anywhere. They've got talent: Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston catching passes, Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis in the backfield, Brandon Flowers, Stanford Routt, and Eric Berry patrolling the secondary, and rookie Dontari Poe anchoring the defensive front. But they have a huge problem at the head of their offense: Matt Cassel just isn't that good a quarterback. His regression sank them last year and basically got head coach Todd Haley fired. In April, Cassel had to answer questions about welcoming competition for his position. Behind him on the depth chart: Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi. Cassel's the presumptive starter, but when people are wondering about competition with Brady flippin' Quinn, that's not a good sign.

31: St. Louis Rams

They shored up their defense with rookie tackle Michael Brockers and corner Janoris Jenkins as well as free-agent acquisition Cortland Finnegan, but will their offense improve at all? Sam Bradford regressed in his play last year, but well... who can he really throw to? Rookie Brian Quick should help, but other than that, he's got a bunch of possession receivers. That means Stephen Jackson has to be amazing, again, and no one knows how much longer he can take the load. Rookie Isaiah Pead was brought in to share carries, but how much he'll improve the offense is yet to be seen. Somewhat like the Chiefs, I feel like they'll be a team that's somewhat difficult to score on, but easy to shut down offensively.

30: Jacksonville Jaguars

They took a punter in round 3 of the draft. That alone should tell you everything about this organization, but that's the lazy way out. Andre Branch will hopefully let their defensive line finally start pressuring opponents, and receiver Justin Blackmon should help right from the start. But QB Blaine Gabbert needs to improve quickly, or they're looking at more futility. Signing Laurent Robinson wasn't a bad move, but it smacked of desperation to fix the offense. Maurice-Jones-Drew is one of the best runners in the game, but he needs help. Aaron Ross should help their woeful secondary as well. Still, they look like locks for last in their division if Andrew Luck is all he's cracked up to be for the Colts.

29: Cleveland Browns

They did well to draft Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden; they needed upgrades at running back and quarterback. Richardson looks like a star and Weeden will compete with Colt McCoy right away. But they did nothing to help their receiving corps. Greg Little is expected to improve, but that's the lone bright spot. Cleveland's underrated defense should keep games closer than expected, but they just don't have the offensive firepower to beat good teams.

28: Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are putting everything in the hands of Christian Ponder, for better or worse. The quarterback, like fellow rookie Gabbert, struggled, albeit with a few bright moments last year. The receivers aren't bad, with Percy Harvin and (if he stays out of legal trouble) Jerome Simpson on the outside. And I don't need to write anything about Adrian Peterson. But Ponder has to improve. They helped give him some protection with rookie tackle Matt Kalil, but this is a make-or-break year for Ponder. Rookie strong safety Harrison Smith should play well, but, well, strong safeties aren't that important anymore.

27: Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill was an absolutely necessary pick: after whiffing on Peyton Manning AND Matt Flynn in free agency, they had to address the quarterback problem in the draft. Tannehill will compete with enigma Matt Moore, and probably will take the starting job at some point, if not right away. Other than that... doesn't look great for the Fins. While Brandon Marshall has tons of problems, he was their best receiver by miles, and he's gone. Davone Bess is a great slot/possession receiver, and Legedu Nanee has potential, but the cupboard's pretty much bare as far as receivers. If Reggie Bush continues his out-of-nowhere effectiveness and the underrated defense can keep playing well, that will help take pressure off of Tannehill/Moore.

26: Buffalo Bills

I basically expect stagnation. They signed Mario Williams, a definite difference-maker on defense. Other than that? More of the same. Ryan Fitzpatrick is still the inconsistent quarterback. Stevie Johnson is the only consistent receiver. RB Fred Jackson has to do it all as best he can again and hope C.J. Spiller figures it out and helps him. Again, their defense should improve with rookie corner Stephon Gilmore, but this offense is not going to scare anyone; they were completely figured out during the latter half of last season.

25: Oakland Raiders

The Raiders had only six picks in the draft, and didn't start until the third round. Ouch. They also lost a great corner in Routt to free agency. Their defense remains decent and threatening with Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain always looking to tear someone's head off. If Carson Palmer can play better, which he should, and Darrius Heyward-Bey and Darren McFadden continue their sudden stardom, the Raiders could shock a few teams.

24: Tennessee Titans

Their offense improved and their defense regressed. Cortland Finnegan, while a bit of a penalty problem, was their most reliable corner. However, they drafted a great young receiver in Kendall Wright, which should help QB Matt Hasselbeck succeed in his place-holding role for expected overtaker Jake Locker. Chris Johnson disappeared for almost all of last season, but got it together for the last few games. Better receivers, star running back, another year for Locker to learn; the Titans are getting there.

23: Washington Redskins

Robert Griffin III. 'nuff said. Well, sort of. Taking QB Kirk Cousins two picks later was... odd, to say the least. They could've used help at receiver or to build defensive depth. It seems the 'Skins want to groom Cousins as future trade bait while Griffin brings them short-and-long-term success. We'll see. But Griffin looks like a star in the making, maybe sooner than later. Pierre Garcon has been inconsistent, but he is a skilled and needed receiver and a good free agent pickup to help Santana Moss. Head coach Mike Shanahan should make Roy Helu continue to be an effective runner, but the Curse of Shanahan (losing runner after runner to injury) looms...

22: Seattle Seahawks

The 'Hawks didn't really draft a difference-maker. But this isn't a bad team. Everything rides on free agent signee Matt Flynn to be an effective passer, but failing that, decent backup Tavaris Jackson and rookie Russell Wilson stand ready. Sidney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, and Mike Williams make up a good receiving corps, and Marshawn Lynch was a touchdown machine last year. If their defense can hold things together, the Seahawks will improve.

21: Chicago Bears

Which Brandon Marshall will they get? The 100-catch wonder that succeeded with Jay Cutler in the past? Or the angry misfit punting footballs in practice? At least the Bears drafted receiver Alshon Jeffrey too, because this receiving group needs help. Matt Forte is a stud, but could still be unhappy about his contract fiasco. Beyond that, the defense has gotten older, slower, and less dependable. Hard to see improvement unless Marshall explodes in the good way.

20: Arizona Cardinals

They did exactly the right thing in drafting Michael Floyd to catch passes opposite star Larry Fitzgerald. If Kevin Kolb is going to succeed, he needs that help. Free agent acquisition Todd Heap, while an older player, finally gives them a legitimate receiving tight end, something everyone in the league needs in the pass-happy game we have today. If Beanie Wells still has it figured out and can avoid injury, this offense could scare people. It all depends on Kolb. Corner and special-teams sensation Patrick Peterson improved over his rookie season, and new rookie corner Jamell Fleming should help their pass defense as well. Now, if they could just get some pass rush...


19: New York Jets

Rookie Quinton Coples helps their D-line, and Stephen Hill helps their receivers. Any team with Darrelle Revis is going to be hard to pass against. But I just am not convinced that Mark Sanchez is a great quarterback. He's been inconsistent enough to make the fickle New York fans unhappy, and signing Tim Tebow behind him doesn't help matters. Santonio Holmes could blow up in the bad way at any moment, and Shonn Greene has yet to prove a worthy feature back. The Jets D can be a crushing unit again, but the offense could end up scaring no one but themselves.

18: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Getting Vincent Jackson and drafting Doug Martin to back up LeGarrette Blount were very sound moves that instantly ramp up their offense, which was pitiful at times last season. Josh Freeman has much more to work with now, and the Bucs hope they've given him an environment where he can improve into the star they think he'll be. Mark Barron should be a great strong safety, but as said before, strong safeties don't have as much of an impact as they used to. Free agent signing Eric Wright will help their pass coverage though.

17: Carolina Panthers

Luke Kuechly should start at middle linebacker right away and help their D as a whole. The Panthers need that in a big way, as they couldn't beat anyone despite Cam Newton's offensive fireworks. Steve Smith found the fountain of youth last year, and they still have excellent running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who should be relied on more so Newton doesn't have to risk injury by being the entire running game. With a bit more offensive balance and more consistent defensive play, the Panthers will be a tough out for all but the best teams.

16: Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck. Boom. Also, tight ends Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, who played with Luck at Stanford, replace Dallas Clark and Jacob Tamme as receiving tight ends to complement veteran receiver Reggie Wayne. This pass offense will rise again. The running game, however, maintains its Colts tradition of being awful. Donald Brown scares no one. Their bad, bad defense was not addressed in the draft. The Colts hope for the Manning effect from Luck: a passing offense so efficient, no one notices the major flaws.

15: San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are a team that has good players everywhere, but great players almost nowhere. Yet another middling season looks likely unless coach Norv Turner finally gets it all together and motivates his team. Phillip Rivers will do the best he can with ok receivers Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem. Ryan Mathews has to be a better running back. The defense has to play consistently. They drafted some decent players to that effect, but as ever, it all comes down to how hard and how smart their core plays. This is a team that looks like it can beat anyone, but might beat no one. Frustration is the norm.

14: Denver Broncos

They signed Peyton Manning. That has to help, right? Well, we'll see. But the pieces are there. Young receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker improved strongly last season, and Willis McGahee came out of nowhere to be an effective runner, though he needs Knowshon Moreno to be good enough to spell him. Their defense played better than they had any right to, led by stud rookie linebacker Von Miller. Head coach John Fox did a masterful job with Tim Tebow last year, and now he doesn't have to with Peyton Manning at the helm. That said, Peyton's health remains an X-factor. His neck is extremely fragile, and if (God-forbid) something happens to him, rookie Brock Osweiler loses that learning opportunity and could be pressed into service before he's ready.

13: Dallas Cowboys

They drafted a much-needed cornerback in Morris Claiborne, and all the offensive pieces are there. DeMarco Murray lit the league up before his injury, and Dez Bryant and Miles Austin make a fearsome duo. The defense, led by sack-maestro DeMarcus Ware, can put the hurt on opponents. But... it just seems like they'll make enough mistakes, especially committed by ever-embattled QB Tony Romo, to lose to teams they shouldn't. I could be totally wrong on this, and they could tear the league up. But I just can't believe in America's Team.

12: Philadelphia Eagles

From America's Team to the "Dream Team," I don't see much difference. Micheal Vick is obviously a whirlwind of offense, but he could go down from injury at any time if he keeps running so much. LeSean McCoy is one of the league's best and most dynamic running backs, and if DeSean Jackson stays motivated, he can break games open. If Philly plays their secondary, anchored by shutdown monstrosity Nnamdi Asomugha, to its potential instead of messing around like last year, they'll be tough to beat. But there are several ifs, the largest being Jackson.

11: Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Dalton played very well last season, and now he has more to work with. A.J. Green will be an even better receiver this year, and Cincy snagged receiver Mohamed Sanu in the third round of this year's draft. Jermaine Gresham is a good receiving tight end, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis should be an upgrade while fulfilling a similar grinding role to Cedric Benson. The defense instantly gets better with rookie corner Dre Kirkpatrick, and has long been better than people think. Could this be a three AFC North playoff team year? I think it's certainly possible.

10: Atlanta Falcons

They drafted Peter Konz to play right guard, which helps QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner. Receiver Julio Jones played well last year, but the jury's still out on if he was worth all those draft picks the Falcons gave up for him in last year's draft. The onus is mostly on the defense to improve. If Asante Samuel's still got it, their pass defense is that much better. They need pass pressure, though. Ends John Abraham and Ray Edwards must deliver in that regard. On paper, they look slightly better than last year's team. But only slightly.

9: Detroit Lions

Rookie Riley Reiff improves their right tackle position, giving QB Matthew Stafford better protection, something he desperately needs. He threw for 5,000 freakin' yards last year. Imagine that, but with more time to do it. Not to mention they drafted yet another offensive toy in Ryan Broyles. This offense is scary as heck. The defense remains a question, however. They need to avoid careless penalties and suspensions (coughSuhcough), and the secondary has to play better. The Lions are well-equipped for shootouts, but the best teams can stall opposing offenses at some point.

8: New Orleans Saints

It hasn't been a good past few months for the Saints. Their offense will be fine; now-gone receiver Robert Meachem was just icing on the cake, and Drew Brees will make magic with Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham just fine. The defense, though... it was already inconsistent, and now suspensions and legal battles loom. It's possible that those suspended players, like Jonathan Vilma, will still play next season, but that doesn't change the fact that the Saints had a hard time stopping people last year and will probably have a harder time this year. It didn't help that they only had five draft picks, either.

7: Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers (rightly) focused on their O-line in the draft, and it should pay big dividends. Right guard David DeCastro will start right away and left tackle Mike Adams will compete and add depth. This should also give Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman bigger holes to plow through, granting the Steelers much better red-zone efficiency. Ben Roethlisberger with time: a scary thought for opposing defenses. Their defense remains as scary as ever, as long as their players can avoid injury (Polamalu) and suspension (Harrison).

6: Baltimore Ravens

I give the Ravens the slight edge in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh rivalry based on recent results and Ray Rice being ridiculously good at everything. If rookie Bernard Pierce is good enough to help, look for that running game to pound opponents into submission. Courtney Upshaw gives them yet another great linebacker for Ray Lewis to command and further crush their enemies and hear the lamentations of their women. The passing game has to improve, though, and that's on Joe Flacco. The Ravens did not address their receiving corps, meaning Torrey Smith has to improve on a good rookie campaign, but they clearly expect Flacco to be the difference-maker they want him to be. They also have to hope Bryant McKinnie is an upgrade at left tackle, or Michael Oher could once again be guarding the blind side.

5: Houston Texans

Whitney Mercilus replaces Mario Williams as their scary sack artist, but it begs the question why they didn't just re-sign Williams and draft for other needs. Like, say, receiver. DeVier Posey basically replaces Jacoby Jones in the WR lineup, which may be an improvement, but not likely a huge one. With Matt Schaub handing off to Arian Foster and throwing to Andre Johnson, we know the offense will be good. But will it be good enough? They added some O-line depth in the draft, but no offensive explosiveness. Still, this looks like a very good team. It's just that it might not fare any better than last year.

4: San Francisco 49ers

It's almost unfair how much they improved their offense. They drafted a quite capable receiver in A.J. Jenkins, who will compete with hot-seat incumbent Michael Crabtree and newcomer and Super Bowl hero Mario Manningham for playing time. They also signed Randy Moss as a flyer, but not without the insurance of A.J. Jenkins. Brandon Jacobs comes in to take some of the pounding away from Frank Gore, helping their running game. LeMichael James will compete with Kendall Hunter for the speed-back position and is perhaps looking at a special-teams role, though that seems odd for a second-round running back choice. The core of their excellent defense is returning in full this season, which the rest of the league cannot be happy about. Alex Smith played shockingly well, and now has better receivers. Look out.

3: New York Giants

They drafted well to maintain their offensive capabilities. David Wilson will spell Ahmad Bradshaw and keep that running machine running, and Reuben Randle replaces departed hero Manningham. The Giants have proven shrewd scouts of receivers, so look for Randle to shine in the Z role behind Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. They lost corner Aaron Ross in free agency, but it's not huge, especially with Prince Amukamara returning from injury to hopefully play a full season as a nickel corner or possibly even a starter by season's end. Eli Manning proved himself in a huge way with last year's Super Bowl victory, but it still feels like the Giants got hot at the right time and aren't really as good as the other top teams. They either overperformed when it counted or underperformed until crunch time. Neither is particularly desirable for long-term success.

2: Green Bay Packers

The Packers' biggest problem last year was defense, which is why they spent their first six out of eight draft picks on defensive players. They suffered from injuries and inefficiency, despite the excellence of Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. OLB Nick Perry will start right away and they picked up important depth in the D-line and secondary. If everyone stays healthy (something you can say for every team, but it holds true), this will be as scary a team as the one that won it all two years ago. Aaron Rodgers throwing to Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley is a proven recipe for offensive success, especially if RB James Starks can keep playing just well enough to keep opponents watching the run game.

1: New England Patriots

Bill Belichick and the Patriots strayed from their usual draft path, and for good reason. They lost the Super Bowl because their defense could not stop the Giants' offense, and the Giants defense could stop their offense. It's that simple. So, the Pats did the right thing: they drafted all-or-nothing defensive studs in the first round. Usually they stockpile middle-round picks through shrewd trades, hoping quantity will produce quality. It's worked pretty well, but now they need something more. To that end, they drafted DE Chandler Jones and ILB Dont'a Hightower (slated to play left linebacker), who both will start and make an impact right away. Tavon Wilson also provides safety depth, which their secondary needs. Offensively, the Pats lost reliable running cog Green-Ellis, but will easily replace him with a committee of Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, and Shane Vereen. At receiver, Brandon Lloyd steps in to finally give Brady someone other than Wes Welker who can catch the ball consistently. That is, if Lloyd stays consistent after that breakout season two years ago. Still, the Patriots don't risk much, as they still have Deion Branch and signed Donte' Stallworth to back up Welker and Lloyd. Tom Brady was crushed after last year's Super Bowl loss. Now, the Patriots hope to crush everyone else, this time through defense as well as offense. It's all or nothing for New England. Super Bowl or bust.

Tim Tebow: the Jet.

Tim Tebow is a New York Jet. In a semi-blockbuster trade from the Denver Broncos, everyone's favorite controversial quarterback moved to the east coast and into even more media scrutiny. Tebow has presumably lost his starting role and will possibly be used as a short-yardage specialist or even on special teams. Is this the end of Tebowmania? Or just the beginning?

Jets starting quarterback Mark Sanchez has endured plenty of scrutiny himself. He has struggled to play consistently well, and the New York media is not known for its kindness to athletes. He still makes many mistakes and never really seems to light up opposing defenses. Still, with Sanchez under center, the Jets reached the AFC championship game twice and beat very good teams. But the fact remains that in a city that wondered if Super Bowl-winning coach Tom Coughlin would be fired in the middle of the season, no one can really be called secure in his job.

Enter Tebow. In Denver, he dethroned Kyle Orton and kept Brady Quinn in obscurity. Then he beat Pittsburgh in the playoffs. His late-game heroics are the stuff of legend, despite only one season of action. Surely he's what the Jets need, surely he can put them over the top and claim that coveted championship title with his sheer will.

At least, that's what fans might think. And if Sanchez starts to struggle again, we could have fans buying billboards demanding that Tebow start. Again. Tebow's fanbase is more or less irrespective of what team he's actually on, so it would come as no surprise that the same fervor he garnered in Denver would follow him to the Big Apple.

Suppose it happens. Suppose Sanchez gets pulled or gets injured and Tebow steps in. Can he succeed? Denver upped its defense and running game to support Tebow. The Jets are known for their defense already, and have expressed a desire to run a smash-mouth ground offense. From a systematic standpoint, it seems plausible that Tebow could repeat and even build on his success in Denver.

The locker room is what stands in the way. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie publicly wondered why the Jets traded for Tebow when they have other needs, and the Jets aren't particularly known for being a team of angels. Receiver Santonio Holmes was accused of quitting. Rex Ryan is a trash-talker who can't always back it up. Tebow is the kind of person who can get along with anyone, but it's easy to wonder if there might be too many personality clashes. Can the humble, soft-spoken Tebow be the face of the big-mouth Jets? It's hard to say.

Tebowmania hits the big city. On with the show.

Manning: riding into the sunset on a different horse.

Peyton Manning has found his new home: the Denver Broncos. After tons of speculation, rumor, and media attention, Manning finally chose his new team after his release by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts felt secure in their position to draft Andrew Luck and decided to move on from the legendary but injured Manning, raising questions of whether Manning would play again, and if so, where. Those have been answered, but a new question arises: will he succeed?

Denver was desperate for a franchise quarterback. After trading the skilled but inconsistent Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears, uncertainty rocked the franchise. Kyle Orton played well for a while, but his weaknesses soon came through and fans grew impatient. Then, Tebow happened. After leading the Broncos to an improbable playoff berth and a stunning first-round upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers, it looked like Tebow was the future.

Not anymore. John Elway and the Denver front office couldn't get rid of him any faster, trading him to the Jets almost immediately after signing Manning. Now, Tebow is off in another quarterback controversy and backup Brady "Who?" Quinn is left to ponder what could have been.

Now, the Broncos think they've found their answer. But Manning, after multiple neck surgeries including a spinal fusion, is no sure thing. Once the pinnacle of quarterbacking skill, Manning is surrounded by doubt. Is he going to be himself once the season starts? Will he be more cautious and less decisive after his time in recovery? And is he just one inevitable hit away from retirement or, God forbid, paralysis?

Those are questions of the future that will have to be answered later. But what about the X's and O's? All speculation on Manning's health aside, will the Broncos be a successful team with him? Are they good enough to become the new Colts, a consistent contender who can practically etch its name into the playoff bracket?

The Broncos succeeded last season because of (among other things) two big factors: a strong running game and solid defense. With the resurgence of Willis McGahee and a stellar blocking line, the Broncos gave Tebow the best chance to succeed by making him not have to be, well, Peyton Manning. There was always the threat of a run from McGahee or Tebow, forcing defenders to the box and giving Tebow favorable matchups on his beloved deep throws. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense, led by Champ Bailey and Von Miller, made opponents work harder at scoring than the Broncos offense had to.

Manning, on the other hand, comes from a situation where his team's success hinged almost solely on him. The Colts were not a running team nor a hard-nosed defensive team, but they won anyway because of their nigh-unstoppable passing game. It helped that for many years Manning had an incredible receiving duo of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne catching his pinpoint passes, propelling the Colts to a Super Bowl victory.

The Broncos don't have quite that pedigree, but do have promising young talent in Eric Decker and Demarious Thomas. They succeeded with Tebow under center, and its not a stretch to imagine even greater things with Manning throwing. Manning, though, is known as a field general. He makes the calls and runs the system. Will the younger players be able to catch on quickly enough and recreate that synchronicity? The option to hand the ball off to McGahee should theoretically help that development, but will Manning be satisfied with that? Coach John Fox did a brilliant job instilling the discipline in his team that let them succeed in a Tebow-fied offense, but will Manning upset that?

Manning seems like a walking playoff spot. How could he not take the Broncos to the playoffs after having done it so many times for the Colts? But it's not that simple. He's switching teams. He's switching philosophies. He's injured. This is a new situation with new circumstances and possibly new results. This is the grand Manning experiment, and the NFL awaits the conclusion.

Manning-ball.

Peyton Manning is spinning around on Free Agent Roulette, and many teams are hoping he lands on their number.

The esteemed quarterback is visiting interested teams to weigh his options. He's already visited the Denver Broncos and the Arizona Cardinals, and it seems likely he will talk to the Miami Dolphins as well. The Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs are reportedly out of the running, as he turned down their requests for his presence. Also out are the New York Jets, who extended Mark Sanchez for three years. The Redskins just made a massive trade with St. Louis in order to draft Robert Griffin III, so they can be eliminated from the race as well.

So where is Manning going to end up? He already has a sealed legend as one of the best quarterbacks of all time, and now the NFL has the opportunity to see him play for someone other than the Colts. It's hard not to imagine half the clubs in the NFL salivating over the chance to have Manning resurrect or enhance their franchises.

The Broncos and Cardinals are both interesting situations. The Broncos have a guy named Tim Tebow to deal with; or rather, his rabid fans to reckon with. They can either commit to developing Tebow's skills as a passer and hope he blossoms into a superb quarterback, or snag the biggest free agent commodity in years and deal with the fallout. The Cardinals just spend a boatload of money on Kevin Kolb, who delivered a mediocre return. Unless Kolb shows great improvement, that deal with Philadelphia (and the big contract they gave Kolb) will be a long-lasting embarrassment. All that can be smoothed over with Manning's arrival.

Other teams in need include the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Browns aren't totally committed to the struggling Colt McCoy, and the Vikings and Jags both have quarterbacks that struggled with limited success in their rookie years. All three teams, however, lack the receiving corps caliber that the Broncos, Cardinals, and Dolphins have, and thus might be less appealing to Manning.

A few dark-horse candidates include the Tennessee Titans and San Francisco 49ers. Titans owner Bud Adams has expressed interest in Manning, and the 49ers may give him a shot if they can't come to terms with Alex Smith, who is coming off his best season. Both fall under the "anything's possible category," which could conceivably include the Buffalo Bills (who extended Ryan Fitzpatrick this past season) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who remain vocally committed to Josh Freeman despite his regression).

Of course, belying all this speculation is further speculation about Manning's ability to play at all, much less at a high level. But that's a question that, like this one, can only be answered with time.

Bountygate: bigger than Williams.

Only a few days ago, a report came out concerning former Washington Redskins and New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and his "bounty systems" in which players were rewarded with cash for taking opposing players out of games by injuring them. He supposedly ran such a system during his tenure with both organizations, and a massive punishment for Williams is expected from the league commissioner, Roger Goodell.

Also in jeopardy are the New Orleans Saints and their leadership which failed to expose and put a stop to these bounties. Head coach Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis could face serious consequences for allowing the bounties to continue, especially after owner Tom Benson reportedly told them to put a stop to the practice.

Bounties for injuries are nothing new in the NFL. Most famously, in 1989, Philadelphia Eagles head coach Buddy Ryan put a bounty on Dallas Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman and kicker Luis Zendejas. As MJD of Yahoo! Sports' Shutdown Corner writes, not much was made of it. It's been more or less accepted in locker rooms and not talked about publicly.

In fact, many players participate in and enjoy the bounty system. As Les Carpenter, also of Yahoo! Sports, writes, Williams's intensity endeared him to his players, and his bounties were a part of that. Defensive players largely see the issue differently from offensive players, even when on the same team when a bounty hit occurs.

For a league concerned with player safety and its image, this is a huge problem. Bounties, along with the already-known concussion issues, put a huge black mark on the league's integrity. It's up to commissioner Goodell to respond. He's said he wants to lessen injuries and clear the league of unethical practices (drug testing and the Spygate scandal), and here he has a big mess to clean up. He needs to get rid of this practice, and quickly, but it won't be easy. Bounties are ingrained into defensive locker room culture. The NFL must find a way to make bounties not worth it. Not worth it for the players to participate in, not worth it for coaches to perpetuate, and not worth it for franchises to ignore. When the probability and cost of getting caught outweigh the rewards (to both wallet and ego), bounties will disappear.

For the sake of professional football, let's hope that happens.

Buy the numbers.

NFLShop.com released sales data for between April 1, 2011 and Feb. 29, 2012, with interesting results. Here's the list of the top 25 jersey sellers:

There's the usual big names there, mostly quarterbacks. Eli Manning obviously got a boost with his Super Bowl victory, but Aaron Rodgers and, interestingly, Tim Tebow edged him out. Rodgers makes sense; he won a Super Bowl the season before, put up huge numbers several seasons in a row, and plays for the Packers, a team with as loyal and rabid a fan-base as any. Tebow doesn't have nearly the statistical pedigree of... well, anyone on this list. His inclusion speaks to his national presence and popularity; people know who he is and, largely, like him, despite a season that, while good, didn't light the league on fire like, say, Rodgers or Drew Brees. The religious factor comes into play, but I don't think that's enough to explain how he's outselling players like Tom Brady. He's a man of great character and with a great story. People see him as a breath of fresh air. He's unique, and in one of the best ways possible.

Also interesting is Victor Cruz's inclusion. No one knew who he was at the start of the season, but after he came out of nowhere and led his Super Bowl-winning team in receiving yards, his popularity skyrocketed. People like the "man off the street" underdog superstar idea, and he's a great example of how instantaneously stardom can arrive.

Despite lingering unpopularity (and even outright hatred) from his dog-fighting scandal, Michael Vick cracked the top-ten. Name-recognition goes a long way, even with a clouded reputation and a less-than-stellar season. Same goes for the Dallas Cowboys on the list, who, like the Eagles, missed the playoffs, but still have the fame and fans to make this list.

It's interesting to see Peyton Manning here, but not too surprising. He's still possibly the biggest name in the game, and he doesn't even have to play to have that status. Peyton Manning is football. People who don't even watch football--who don't even like football--know who he is. So what if he had neck surgery? So what if his future career is in doubt? He's Peyton freaking Manning.

Mark Sanchez is the only Jet on this list. You'd think they'd be represented by a good player, like Derrelle Revis, but that's the way it goes.

Troy Polamalu is the highest-ranked of the few defensive players on the list. No Roethlisberger, no Mike Wallace, no Rashard Mendenhall... we know what Steelers fans value: hard-hitting defense. Same goes for the Bears and Ravens and their popular linebackers Urlacher and Lewis.

The Ocho returns... to the Patriots?

Former Bengal and current Patriot Chad Ochocinco didn't do a lot last season. In fact, he only made 15 catches as a Patriot. Despite this lack of production, the Patriots reportedly want him to restructure his contract and stay with the team.

Apparently, the Pats still see something in him. They already have a formidable passing offense featuring Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch, but I suppose they figure if they can add one more piece, especially a credible deep threat, it can't hurt. After all, Ochocinco's 18.4 yards per catch did lead all Patriots receivers with 10 or more catches. Obviously that's a small sample size, but if he can put up anything close to that average with more involvement in the offense, I don't think anyone will complain.

With this news, the Patriots continue their tradition of kicking the tires on veteran cogs to place in their machine. They did it successfully with Randy Moss for a season, they tried Albert Haynesworth, they brought back Branch, and now Ocho's on board.

Assuming he cuts a deal and stays with the team, can he be 2012's version of 2007's Moss? The formerly disgruntled veteran receiver known for his talent and ego coming out of nowhere to push the mighty Patriots into the Super Bowl once more? Well, for one, it's not like the Patriots needed him last season. And there's a wealth of credible receiving threats on this offense already. But still, it's an entertaining thought.

Who knows, Ocho might get a ring after all. And earn it, too.

What men want...?

NFL fans may or may not know of the Lingerie Football League, created in 2009. Basically, it is what it sounds like: women in skimpy outfits playing football. I can't think of any other rationale for creating it besides "hey, guys like football and scantily-clad attractive women, let's combine them and take their money!" The league's founder, Mitch Mortaza, has even said that the target audience is "mostly beer-drinking college students aged 21 and up."

As would be expected, there's some controversy over it. Some find it degrading in that it objectifies women and appeals to perverts and lament the fact that women's football can't find traction without sex appeal. Some players don't mind, or can put up with it. Some people don't see a problem at all.

So, is there a problem? Is this simply a business venture appealing to a market audience, or is it a symptom of a sexist and perverse society? One line of thinking says that, for now, sex appeal is needed to bring in the viewers, then a more legitimately athletic focus can develop. But it could just as easily be argued that this is only the beginning; it's just going to get raunchier and more exploitative from here. Looking at popular culture, it's hard to see any direction other than the latter. Sex sells everywhere. From beer ads to condom commercials to video game characters, the less clothing and more suggestion the better. I mean, why do you think porn is such a huge business?

There's a whole issue of cultural morality at hand that can be discussed for hours, days, months, generations. But this is a football blog, so I'm going to talk about football. Regarding the combination of sex and football, it seems the Lingerie Football is just more of the same. Cheerleaders already exist. It's not like there's never been a skimpy female outfit on a football field. But do guys (the target audience of the LFL, and, really, the NFL) watch for the cheerleaders? On the whole, no. They watch for the game. The excitement of the sport. The athletic feats. The emotion of cheering for a team's success.

Sure, you're going to get the occasional guy pointing with his beer and saying "oh, yeah, look at those cheerleaders." But that's a side "benefit" to the more... vulgar-minded fan. Sports don't need sex to sell. I think people who create things like the LFL overestimate sex appeal, possibly because of their own personal preferences (read: I don't think Mitch Mortaza has the purest of motives). Creating something like the LFL is superfluous. It's very, very easy to find that kind of... visual entertainment in our society. I mean, google is free, for crying out loud. Moral issues aside, making a "sexy" football league is just unnecessary and, I think, impractical.

In the end, guys want to watch football. You don't need women in their undies to make that happen. There's plenty of those around already.

What's next for the Patriots?

The New England Patriots are what no one wants to be: Super Bowl losers. But this organization has been unstoppable over the last decade. It seems unlikely that they will do anything but bounce back, hungrier than ever. Will it happen though? And will it be sustainable? Is it possible that the golden era for the Patriots is drawing to a close?

The offense is not a problem, that much is certain. Well, as certain as anything can be in the ever-changing NFL. Tom Brady is still a supreme quarterback. Bill Belichick is still a masterful coach. Wes Welker is phenomenal, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez shredded the league, and enough other parts (Deion Branch, BenJarvus Green-Ellis) are there to keep things churning along. Even though the running game lacks an elite star, Belichick's system keeps succeeding almost regardless of the players involved. I suppose the only question here is: how long can this keep up? Brady is still fantastic, but he's 34. He's not going to play forever; not even Favre pulled that off. He still wants to win more Super Bowls, to keep padding his Hall-of-Fame resume, to be unquestionably the best quarterback in the league, and possibly the best ever. But there's only going to be so many more chances, and who knows what can happen (think of the injury against Kansas City that ended his 2008 season before it even started).

The offense can still be dominant for the next few years. But there's a big problem facing this team: the defense, particularly, the secondary. The front line isn't bad, anchored by human wall Vince Wilfork. The linebackers are decent, led by Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo. But frankly, the Patriots can't expect to stop any functional passing offense with the likes of Kyle Arrington, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, and James Ihedigbo (who? exactly) starting. That unit has to improve, or teams will just throw all over the Pats and beat them at their own game.

Of course, free agency hasn't started in earnest and the draft is still to come. The Patriots are masters of trading draft picks around to get as many as possible at the expense of the "prime" drafting spots. But this year, they have to hope they strike gold and get some real impact players, or they might actually backslide. Remember, one missed field goal sent them to the Super Bowl. If Billy Cundiff makes that kick, it's possible we'd all be talking about the Ravens' rise to success in recent years culminating in their championship appearance. And how would the Ravens have done it? Defense and their running game led by Ray Rice.

The well-oiled machine that is the Patriots is still standing, still running, still giving the rest of the league fits. But if they're not careful, it could all come crashing down.

Rising from the dead.

They both wore #81. They were both regarded as top wide receivers. They both have bad locker-room reputations. They both have not won a Super Bowl ring. And they're both trying to come back.

Randy Moss and Terrell Owens are looking at comebacks, still hungry for glory. But will anyone give them that opportunity? The Yahoo! Sports NFL blog, Shutdown Corner, has some good posts about Moss and Owens and their desire to return. Both men have plenty of confidence; Owens says "Everybody knows I'm in great shape. It's just a matter of getting the opportunity." Moss claims he can run a 4.3 and he's "comin' to tear somebody's heads off."

Despite this brimming bravado, there are huge obstacles in the way of their glorious returns. Moss has always been known as a problematic ego who will drop his effort when he's feeling pouty. He seemed to lose that part of his reputation in his stint with the Patriots, putting up that huge 2007 season, but quickly regained it in his short and ugly return to the Vikings and failure to make an impact on the Titans. He wants to win a Super Bowl with someone, but it seems like a long shot that Super Bowl-caliber teams would want such a volatile character messing with their team chemistry, even if he can run a 4.3.

As for Owens, he has a long reputation of spats with quarterbacks and coaches, bouncing from the 49ers to the Eagles to the Cowboys. Lately, however, he's been a model teammate, keeping quiet during a statistically quiet season in Buffalo and a more successful season with the Bengals. His season-ending knee injury, however, raises new questions. Is he the same T.O. that used to terrorize secondaries? Can he really elevate a team to a championship, or is he just another washed-up veteran desperate to stay in the game (cough Favre cough)?

Like many questions surrounding the NFL, these questions are impossible to answer before the fact. If a team decides to take the risk of signing either of these guys, and if they put their ego aside, and if they can still play at a higher than average level, and if the rest of the team is playing at a high level... sure, they can have successful comebacks and win that elusive championship ring. But that's a lot of ifs. It's just as possible that one of them will join a team thinking it's one explosive player away from the Super Bowl (Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, San Francisco, and the New York Jets spring to mind), contribute little to nothing, have a huge public blowup, and be unceremoniously dumped into obscurity. There's just no way to predict it. Personally, I find it more likely that a middling team will sign one of them, get some "meh" production from them, and drop them after that one-year contract, just like Cincinnati did with T.O. and the Titans did with Moss.

These guys think they can come back and win the big one. But does anyone else think so?

On Mannings and winning.

Eli Manning is now twice a champion. After beating Tom Brady and the Patriots for the second time, he has two Super Bowl rings and is securing his legacy as a top quarterback. His brother, the more highly-regarded Peyton Manning, has one ring, and is facing possibly the immediate end of his career after a series of neck surgeries. So, the question arises: which Manning is better?

The knee-jerk reaction by many is to count the rings and only the rings. Winners win championships, after all. It's not that simple, though. Aaron Rodgers has one ring and put up one of the greatest statistical seasons of all time. Drew Brees has one ring and set the single-season record for passing yardage. Looking from the other perspective, Ben Roethlisberger has two rings, but is generally considered just below the top tier (that tier being occupied by Peyton, Brady, Brees, and now Rodgers). Football is a team game: Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl because of his team's defense. Same with Roethlisberger in his first victory. So where does this leave Eli?

Peyton is considered great not because he won the Super Bowl once, but for his remarkable consistency and high performance in the regular season and the playoffs. He helped the Colts reach the playoffs 11 times in 13 full seasons. This past season, without him playing, the Colts went 2-14. He was the team. His presence and play elevated his team beyond its limitations (which became so evident in 2011).

Eli just doesn't have the same reputation. With him as the starter, the Giants made the playoffs in five out of eight seasons, but the Giants' running game and defense receive most of the credit for their success, including that first Super Bowl victory. Eli's play has been consistently inconsistent (lots of interceptions, including 25 in the 2010 season) and often it seems like the Giants will win in spite of him. To his credit, he has improved, culminating in 2011 with 4,933 passing yards, a 29:16 TD/INT split, and a Super Bowl victory in which he outplayed Tom Brady. If this keeps up, yeah, he'll be the main Manning. But not yet.

So just how important is winning championships to judging a quarterback's legacy? Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, but he's one of the greats. Tom Brady has three rings, but it was always a difficult argument deciding if he or Peyton was better. Regular season wins are hard to judge on the surface as well. Look at Tim Tebow. He won a lot of games. He often made the plays that let them win. He even won a playoff game. But how much of that is to his credit compared to the coaching scheme, defense, matchups, and overall team context? In terms of passing ability, he's far behind most other starting NFL quarterbacks. His attitude and drive are unquestionable, but does that make him a great quarterback? I don't know. It's too easy to look at a quarterback and say "oh, he won a bunch of games this season, he's good" when it's the coaches and defense that were responsible for those wins, and it's also easy to say "oh, he didn't win the Super Bowl a lot so he's not that great" and ignore how well he played during the season and the limitations of his team.

You can look at the stats and numbers and titles, but judging quarterbacks (or any other players) comes down to a subjective interpretation of those facts. What do you think is more important? Only you know. Thus, the debates will never truly end. Peyton vs. Brady. Peyton vs. Eli. Favre vs. Rodgers. One day, all these players will be done with their careers. The numbers will be recorded. The rings will be worn. But the conclusions will never be resolved.